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Justin’s Journey Week 10

daily fantasy football

Justin says the Chiefs defense has a shot. Peyton doesn’t want to hear it.

This past week was  frustrating for many reasons, but great in other ways.

I had a solid play at each position (aside from TE) who put together great days, including Drew Brees’ 392 yards and 4 scores, AJ Green’s 151 yards and a score (albeit a miracle score), Reggie Bush the Bengals defense holding Baltimore under 200 total yards in 4 plus quarters, Reggie Bush topping 100 yards, and Zac Stacy finding the end zone despite only 62 rushing yards. Each of these plays was solid for my daily fantasy football contests, yet not spectacular, and in what was the lowest scoring week for DFS lineups that I’ve seen since beginning my journey in week 2, these numbers were not good enough in many leagues. If you were one of the people to be fortunate enough to have pulled Demariyus Thomas’ name out of the proverbial hat that is the Denver receiving carousel, then you were likely one of the players who cashed a lot of games. In a year where I have seen daily fantasy football scores of 150+ not find the money, this week anything north of 120 was almost certain to cash in most formats. These weeks are hard to prepare for, because outside of Marshawn Lynch, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Brandon Marshall, or Thomas, there weren’t many players who had huge games. And if you somehow had a majority of them, congratulations. I was not that fortunate. These past few weeks have proven difficult for me, and I’m once again looking to change gears. This week I’m going to focus on starting only elite QB options, as well as daily fantasy football players who are targeted most often in their respective offenses. This doesn’t only include the top daily fantasy football option on each team, but I’m looking to find not only value, but opportunity. Players who are only being targeted a few times per game are not going to be found on my rosters this week, aside from a few sneaky RB plays. I’ll be focusing on consistency and maximizing each opportunity that my players can find. There is one thing that you cannot live without in DFS, and that is a top-scoring QB. If your QB is not finishing top ten in scoring, you can kiss your chances of cashing a daily fantasy football GPP goodbye, as well as making double ups and H2H matchups difficult as well. I’m moving from sit down restaurant to fine dining this week. Goodbye Tony Romo, hello Peyton Manning. No more scrubs for me. I’m looking at you, Andy Dalton. In order to make everyone fit in my daily fantasy football salary cap, I’ll be posting my top play as well as one or two other lower salary guys I’ll be looking at this week.

QB- Drew Brees: Brees is the model of daily fantasy football consistency in my book. I know he had an off week against the Jets, but I can’t imagine many more days like that one, even against a solid 49ers defense. Don’t be fooled by name recognition, this is not last year’s team. Yes, they are still a good defense, but the Saints offense is just better. Better than just about anyone. I’ll be playing Brees with confidence. All over the place. You get the picture.

QB- Russell Wilson: I know what you’re thinking. I literally JUST said that I needed to have a top scoring QB on my roster if I want to be successful. Do I think Russell Wilson is elite? No. Do I think the Vikings pass defense is the opposite of elite? YES. I’m going to be looking long and hard at any QB facing this defense from here on out. Wilson is smart, doesn’t make many bad decisions, and has been passing a lot more at the goal line than he did earlier this season and last year. I look for him to have a big game.

I’m sure you noticed that I didn’t include Peyton Manning. It’s not that I’ll be avoiding him in my daily fantasy football contests, but I have more faith in the Chiefs defense than many others do. In yearly leagues, ESPN has them projected for -2 points. Yes, that is NEGATIVE 2. Manning and company are good, but so is this defense. The Chargers held Manning and his prolific attack to 28 points last week. He also is playing on two sore ankles, and is nowhere near 100 percent. I look for the Chiefs to get after him early and often, and with his lack of mobility, if the Chiefs can make tackles in the open field, they can make this a game.

RB- Adrian Peterson: What more needs to be said about All Day that hasn’t been said before? He is the best in the game, and I don’t think it is close. Throw in the fact that Seattle gave up over 170 rushing yards in back to back weeks against the Rams and Buccaneers, both of whom started rookie backs in those games,. I can’t imagine AP going for less than 120 this week. Yes, the Seahawks only allowed 49 rushing yards to Atlanta last week, but there are high school teams who run the ball better than the Falcons. Their running game is an absolute embarrassment.

RB- Andre Brown: What he did last week in his first action back from an injury was nothing short of spectacular. He now has the privilege of facing a weak Packers run defense, which has allowed big numbers to backs over the past two weeks ever since Aaron Rodgers went down. Coincidence? I think not. The Packers can no longer control the game, chewing up big chunks of clock with Rodgers under center. This defense is average at best. They are being exploited now in a big way. I absolutely love Brown this week…so use him with caution.

WR- Andre Johnson: During the past two games with Case Keenum under center, Johnson has more than overpowered the competition to the tune of FIVE touchdowns, good for 8.2% of his CAREER total. That in itself is astonishing. I know he was held to 37 yards last week, but he now faces an Oakland defense that allowed Nick Foles to look like Peyton Manning. This defense has more holes to exploit than the Kardashians. If that is possible. Johnson will be my main target this week, and I’ll certainly be paying a hefty price.

WR- Golden Tate: 14 catches and three scores over the past three weeks, and now facing this Vikings “defense”, if you can call it that with a straight face. As I alluded to earlier, I think Wilson is in for a big daily fantasy football game, and Tate will be his top target. You should be able to get Tate at a cheaper tag than the elite guys, and I think his upside this week is huge, even if Percy Harvin comes back. I expect that Tate will go out and steal a touchdown the way he stole donuts his rookie year, and stole that game from the Packers last season.

WR- Riley Cooper: Not a sneaky play at all, but he still won’t even be the most expensive WR on his own team. Nick Foles loves this guy (probably because Foles is white, and not threatened by him), and although I have little faith in Foles’ accuracy (just take a look at throws to Cooper last week. AWFUL.), he will be targeting Cooper the way that Cooper targeted an entire race: publicly and often. Five scores in the past two weeks, and not to beat a dead horse, but the Redskins defense is offensive to all five senses. And Native Americans.

TE- Jordan Cameron: Cameron looked like a different Jordan the way he dominated this defense in the last meeting, and I anticipate more of the same. The Bengals are actually tremendous against TEs, but the way he gashed them last time, I’ll bite on Cameron until the Bengals prove they can slow him down. I’m not sure if he will be a popular play, but if players are looking at defense vs TE stats, he will likely be under-owned.

TE- Vernon Davis: Last time Davis played the Saints, he was pretty good. OK, he was very good. While I wouldn’t expect 180 yards and two scores, I would expect him to play with the energy and passion that has been lacking at times. When the stakes are high, Davis finally shows up. If he is crying at the end of the game, you’ve probably done well.

D/ST- Cardinals: A hot defense matched up with the Jags. Any questions?

D/ST- Chiefs: I think this is a very sneaky play this week. All it will take is to force Manning into a few mistakes, maybe run one back, and you’re in the money. I’m big on them this week, and you probably won’t see them cheaper the rest of the year.  We’ll see who wins this debate on Monday, ESPN.

I am so pumped for this week, not because I can’t wait to see if Richie Incognito is just a misunderstood douchebag, or if the Chiefs will show up in their biggest regular season game in years. Because I have a ton of confidence in my strategy this week, and I am looking to exploit under-owned players, while also making certain I pony up the cash for some elite players.

About the Author
Justin was born to play fantasy sports. He may or may not be half man, half machine. Adrian Peterson thanks him daily for the privilege of being on his team.

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