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Justin’s Journey Week 13

Why won't you just stop Eric?

Why won’t you just stop Eric?

I finally broke through this weekend!

I won my $109 Qualifier to the Fantasy Millionaire at DraftKings this weekend! Special shout out to CrazyGabey for some last minute daily fantasy football lineup intel. It wasn’t without it’s stressful, if not borderline ridiculous moments that kept me on the edge of my seat. All of my daily fantasy football players players played at 1pm/EST, and almost every player had a great game ( McCown-25.2, AP-26.1, Donald Brown- 14.4, Michael Floyd- 20.9, Alshon Jeffery- 51.9!!, Gronk- 27.7, and Vereen-18.5. My kicker and defense combined for 9 points). I was left with a lead of around 50 points over the players in 2nd-4th, and nearly 100 over everyone else.

As long as nobody had a monster outing during the late games I figured I would cruise to victory.

No such luck.

As I was watching in my rear view mirror, I noticed “Broccoli” had 3 entries, and one was within 50 points at halftime, with 4 players remaining. I didn’t think much of it, because it would certainly take a miracle to come back from that far down. I was watching the Bengals/Chargers game, and every time they cut to highlights it was Eric Decker in the end zone. I checked back to my daily fantasy football scores, and to my dismay I saw that Broccoli’s 3rd entry had Decker. Of course he did. Now at this point it is late in the third quarter, and Decker had just scored his third TD of the game. The lead was down to 31. Not 10 minutes later, I checked the score to see that Moreno had just been stopped at the 1 yard-line. Surely Peyton Manning wouldn’t throw a fade to Decker here, but somehow I knew it was coming. Touchdown. The lead was down to 24. Then, to add insult to injury, Andy Dalton miraculously threw a TD pass–to AJ Green. I knew he had Green, but I had no idea he had Dalton as well. Just like that, the lead was down to 11.7 After that, it was a combination of cheering against my own team (screaming) and drinking my beer with reckless abandon. Dalton then hit Green again for a 28 yard gain. Down to 6.6.

At this point, all I wanted was for the games to end. NOW. I didn’t even care if my beloved Bengals won. Screw them, this was bigger than them, it was daily fantasy football! Hell, I already despise Andy Dalton, and I’ll be damned if the arm that costs the Bengals multiple games each season will be the one that takes me out. The Bengals began to run out the clock, and I knew I was safe from there on out. Kansas City had just cut the lead to 7. Great, I thought, here comes Decker. Sure enough, second play of the drive: BOOM. Decker for 18 yards. Now my lead was 3.8, and I knew that any one play could sink me. Denver finally stalled out and punted. Now for Denver’s defense to make a stop. Kansas City got the ball back with 3:32 on the clock. I knew that if the Chiefs didn’t tie the game here, Decker wouldn’t see the ball again and I was home free. 3rd and 14 from their own 4 yard line, “YES! The ticket is mine!” I thought. WRONG. Alex Smith made the only downfield throw I’ve ever seen him attempt to 49ers castaway A.J. Jenkins for a 26-yard gain. Shit. Two plays later, Dexter McCluster caught a deep one for 28 more. Then Dwayne Bowe for 23 more. They are in the red zone. Damnit. What a way to lose. Decker is going to score with 10 seconds left to cap the greatest receiving day we’ve seen in my lifetime.

Then it happened.

Alex Smith became…Alex Smith. The pressure got to him, and he overthrew Dwayne Bowe on 4th down at the 13. Effin A! What are the odds that the short pass is the one Smith can’t complete? How ironic. But hell, I love him for it. If I win a million dollars, I’ll send him a thank you card. And maybe congratulate Eric Decker on his day (but probably not). With all of that being said, the qualifier wasn’t the only daily fantasy football success of the week. I cashed two different entries in GPP tournaments, with very similar daily fantasy football lineups (one of which had Jeffery AND Josh Gordon), as well as 3 out of 4 double up tournaments. I also had two cashes in the Quarter Arcade, but I think the $2 I won is more of a pride thing at this point. I capped it all off with winning a freeroll at FanThrowdown, as well as a 5th place finish in a 50-man triple up. This was one hell of a weekend for me in daily fantasy football.

I can’t wait to begin this next one.

Week 14 Targets

QB: Josh McCown/Jay Cutler vs Dallas. I don’t really care which one of them starts this game, I’ll go Team QB style on this one. The Dallas secondary is likely to be destroyed by either gunslinger. I’m hoping Cutler can’t go, because McCown is cheaper, and I can save some cash for elsewhere.

QB- Alex Smith @ Washington. Yes, Alex Smith. The guy who is good enough to win most games, but not really good enough to win most games. Makes sense, right? Moving on. Smith has at least 25 fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games, and faces a pathetic Redskins defense that can’t stop anyone aside from Eli Manning. Smith should be a step down in salary from the elite options this week (none of whom I’ll be targeting, except maybe Peyton).

RB- Matt Forte vs Dallas. Dallas allows the most points to opposing running backs this season, and Forte trails only Jamaal Charles for most points by running backs this season. Matchups don’t get any juicier than this one. He’ll be expensive, but you can rely on him for consistent points, and the potential for a huge day.

RB- CJ Spiller @ Tampa Bay. The Bucs have allowed 5.0 YPC ¬†over the past three weeks, and considering those numbers came against Atlanta, Detroit, and Carolina, none of whom are consistent rushing attacks, Spiller could be in for a big day. He’s the type of guy who could make your week with one touch, and should be a good value play with a ton of upside.

WR- Josh Gordon @ New England. The Browns will throw the ball a lot because their running game is non-existent. Gordon has topped 125 yards in four of his last five games. He is the top option, and we know the Browns will be playing catch-up. I won’t be the guy who wouldn’t pay up for Gordon this week. He’ll be all over my rosters.

WR- Michael Floyd vs St. Louis. Another guy who is absolutely on fire, and I won’t be looking past him until he cools off. He is averaging 6/132/0.7 over the past three weeks, and was ridiculously cheap last week. Certainly his price will rise, but there is a ton of value here.

TE- Rob Gronkowski vs Cleveland. A touchdown in 4 straight games and the top target in the red zone for a hot Patriots offense. The Brownies allowed the JAGUARS to score 32 points on them last week, including scores to TEs Clay Harbor and Mercedes Lewis. Gronk should continue to dominate this week. My favorite play overall.

TE- I likely won’t be playing any other TEs this week. The dropoff after Jimmy Graham and Gronk is immense. I’m not going to let it cost me the way it nearly did last week.

D/ST- Bengals vs Indianapolis. The Bengals D/ST has scored at least 10 fantasy points in every single game played at Paul Brown Stadium. As unreliable of an attack as this Colts offense has been, they could easily continue that trend. The Bengals also have 2 D/ST touchdowns in EACH of their past two home games. This is an enormous matchup in the AFC playoff picture, and the Bengals know they can’t rely on Andy Dalton each week. The defense gets it done.

D/ST- Cardinals vs St. Louis. Another defense that is money at home. Kellen Clemens has been adequate, but never spectacular. I like the Cardinals as a decent option this week.

I’m looking forward to another successful week in daily fantasy football as I work toward my big tournament on the 22nd. My strategy seems to have come to a near complete science, and I’ll be looking to tweak any details necessary this week in order to make it even better!

About the Author
Justin was born to play fantasy sports. He may or may not be half man, half machine. Adrian Peterson thanks him daily for the privilege of being on his team.

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